ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction
This site presents results from an experimental, real-time simulation
of corotating and transient solar wind disturbances driven by various
coronal models:
These results are updated daily and are used for validation of a research
ENLIL version, driving coronal models, and various applications.
The stable operational ENLIL version is used by NOAA/SWPC (USA),
MetOffice (UK), RRA/KSWC (Korea), BOM/IPS (Australia),
and ROB (Belgium) for official space weather forecast and by
NASA/CCMC (USA) for operational support of their heliospheric
and other missions.
  - 
     MODELS - Daily updated results by various driving coronal models
     (1.7 AU, low-res, 3h cadence):
  
 
  - 
    EXISTING MISSIONS - Daily updated results to support heliospheric missions (<6 AU, low-res, 4-12h cadence):
  
 
  - 
    PLANNED MISSIONS - Global context:
  
 
  - 
     ARCHIVE - Animations and temporal profiles in 2007-2017 (by year and month):
  
 
  - 
     EVENTS - Selected events simulated in higher resolution and/or presented with more details:
  
 
Global structure of the solar wind is simulated by:
- 
  
    ENLIL solar wind code.
  
  The numerical code ENLIL (Sumerian god of wind and storms)
  is a research tool for simulations of corotating and transient
  solar wind disturbances.
  The physical model is based upon the ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD)
  description and the numerical scheme is an explicit high-resolution
  TVD Lax-Friedrichs scheme.
 
The real-time ENLIL application is driven by:
- 
  
    IPSBD (UCSD tomography) model data.
  
  This model uses observations of the interplanetary scintillation (IPS)
  from STELab radio arrays to calculate the solar wind density and radial 
  velocity.
  A tomographic technique and a kinematic model are used to reconstruct
  the global structure of the solar wind.
  ENLIL uses output from this model and constructs solar wind source
  conditions at 0.1 AU.
  Note that a 6-hour cadence of IPSBD maps are used to drive the simulation.
 
- 
  
    Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model data.
  
  This model uses observations of the photospheric magnetic
  field, potential field source surface (PFSS) and Shatten current sheet
  (SCS) models, and an empirical formula to derive the radial magnetic
  field and flow velocity.
  ENLIL uses output from the WSA model driven by the daily-updated
  GONG observations and constructs solar wind source conditions
  at 0.1 AU.
  WSADU and WSADT labels use a single map (standard approach) and
  temporal sequence of maps (experimental), respectively.
 
and uses the following data sets:
- 
  
    Synoptic magnetograms.
  
  Remote observations of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere
by the GONG Network (six sites around the globe) processed by
by the National Solar Observatory (NSO).
 - 
  
    IPS observations.
  
  Remote observations of interplanetary scintillations (IPS)
by the antenna system (Toyokawa year-round; Fuji, Sugadaira and Kiso
from spring to the beginning of winter)
operated by the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab)
of the Nagoya University in Japan.
 
- 
  
    CMEs Cone model parameters.
  
  Manual operational fitting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
observed by SOHO/LASCO and/or STEREO/COR coronagraphs using
the cone model by CCMC staff.
 
- 
  
    Trajectories of Planets and Spacecraft.
  
  These positions are used during ENLIL computations to store
  values of the solar wind density, velocity, temperature, and
  magnetic field, and they are also displayed on the global solar
  wind plots.
 
- 
  
    ACE Real Time Solar Wind.
  
  Values of the solar wind density, velocity, temperature, and
  magnetic field are overlaid on plots showing the evolution of
  parameters at Earth to indicate the accuracy of the numerical
  simulation.
 
- 
  
    STEREO Real Time Solar Wind.
  
  Values of the solar wind density, velocity, temperature, and
  magnetic field are overlaid on plots showing the evolution of
  parameters at Stereo A and B spacecraft to indicate the accuracy
  of the numerical simulation.
 
Please send questions and comments to
  Dusan.Odstrcil@gmail.com
from
  George Mason University - Space Weather Lab
and
  NASA/GSFC - Space Weather Lab.
Acknowledgments: This work has been supported in part by
NASA, NSF, AFOSR Agencies and by GMU/SPACS, NASA/CCMC, NOAA/SWPC, RRA/KSWC Institutes.
Last update: 2014-10-14